African WC Qual. 1st and 2nd Round Final
Global 2-4
Mauritania vs Tunisia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
13.2%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
+2
2.7%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
3.3%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
9.9%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
22.5%
64.2%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
0-1
15.8%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
-1
26.7%
0-2
13.9%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
10.8%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.5%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mauritania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2015 |
MTN
1 - 1
MLI
15%
22%
64%
|
57 | 77 | 20 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
MLI
2 - 1
MTN
76%
17%
7%
|
57 | 76 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2015 |
MTN
4 - 0
SSD
39%
25%
37%
|
56 | 56 | 0 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 2015 |
SSD
1 - 1
MTN
46%
25%
29%
|
56 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
MTN
3 - 1
RSA
11%
20%
69%
|
54 | 82 | 28 | +2 |
Matches
Tunisia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
2 - 3
MAR
46%
27%
27%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
1 - 0
LBY
65%
22%
13%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
3 - 3
GAB
66%
21%
13%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
LBR
1 - 0
TUN
12%
21%
68%
|
82 | 57 | 25 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 0
TUN
23%
27%
50%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | -1 |