Northern Ireland vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.3%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.9%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.4%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
50.5%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
13.3%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.4%
0-3
5%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.9%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
SMR
0 - 3
NIR
15%
24%
61%
|
85 | 38 | 47 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
NIR
0 - 2
HUN
38%
27%
35%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2008 |
NIR
4 - 0
SMR
90%
8%
2%
|
85 | 38 | 47 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2008 |
SVN
2 - 0
NIR
50%
27%
23%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2008 |
NIR
0 - 0
CZE
19%
27%
55%
|
85 | 96 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
WLS
0 - 1
POL
30%
27%
43%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2009 |
LTU
1 - 1
POL
17%
24%
59%
|
92 | 78 | 14 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2008 |
SRB
0 - 1
POL
21%
26%
53%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
IRL
2 - 3
POL
45%
27%
27%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 2008 |
SVK
2 - 1
POL
31%
26%
43%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | -1 |