Northern Ireland vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14.6%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.3%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10.5%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
21.9%
63.5%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
0-1
13.6%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.7%
0-2
12.6%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.7%
0-3
7.8%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
11%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.8%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.7%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2002 |
LIE
0 - 0
NIR
5%
18%
78%
|
86 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2002 |
POL
4 - 1
NIR
63%
23%
14%
|
86 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2001 |
MLT
0 - 1
NIR
19%
29%
51%
|
86 | 55 | 31 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2001 |
NIR
3 - 0
ISL
56%
25%
19%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2001 |
DEN
1 - 1
NIR
74%
18%
8%
|
86 | 93 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2002 |
NED
1 - 0
ESP
46%
25%
29%
|
98 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2002 |
ESP
1 - 1
POR
62%
21%
17%
|
98 | 95 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2001 |
ESP
1 - 0
MEX
77%
16%
8%
|
98 | 91 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2001 |
LIE
0 - 2
ESP
4%
14%
83%
|
98 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2001 |
ESP
4 - 0
AUT
75%
16%
9%
|
98 | 90 | 8 | 0 |