UEFA Nations League Quarter-finals
Global 5-5
Netherlands vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
37.3%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
4.9%
2-0
5%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
39.3%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11.7%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Netherlands
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2024 |
BIH
1 - 1
NED
8%
16%
76%
|
93 | 79 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2024 |
NED
4 - 0
HUN
76%
15%
9%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2024 |
GER
1 - 0
NED
53%
21%
26%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
HUN
1 - 1
NED
17%
22%
61%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2024 |
NED
2 - 2
GER
50%
22%
28%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov. 2024 |
ESP
3 - 2
SUI
78%
14%
8%
|
96 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
DEN
1 - 2
ESP
22%
23%
55%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 2024 |
ESP
3 - 0
SRB
82%
12%
6%
|
95 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
ESP
1 - 0
DEN
73%
16%
11%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
SUI
1 - 4
ESP
24%
23%
53%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | 0 |