Guinea vs Madagascar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
81%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.7%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
+4
10.1%
3-0
13.2%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.5%
2-0
16.3%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.4%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.5%
13.7%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
13.7%
5.3%
Win probability
0.47
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
4.3%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
MAD
1 - 1
GUI
11%
19%
69%
|
78 | 54 | 24 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2011 |
SEN
3 - 0
GUI
57%
24%
19%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2010 |
BFA
2 - 1
GUI
35%
26%
39%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2010 |
GUI
1 - 0
NGA
32%
29%
39%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2010 |
ETH
1 - 4
GUI
27%
26%
47%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
MAD
1 - 1
GUI
11%
19%
69%
|
54 | 78 | 24 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2010 |
MAD
0 - 1
ETH
25%
24%
52%
|
54 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2010 |
NGA
2 - 0
MAD
93%
6%
1%
|
54 | 87 | 33 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2010 |
MAD
1 - 0
COM
77%
16%
7%
|
54 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2010 |
MAD
0 - 0
MAY
78%
15%
7%
|
54 | 9 | 45 | 0 |