Wales vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
45.5%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
13.7%
0-3
4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.3%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2024 |
WLS
4 - 1
FIN
53%
25%
22%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2023 |
WLS
1 - 1
TUR
32%
26%
42%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2023 |
ARM
1 - 1
WLS
24%
26%
50%
|
85 | 67 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2023 |
WLS
2 - 1
HRV
17%
24%
59%
|
85 | 91 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2023 |
WLS
4 - 0
GIB
85%
12%
3%
|
84 | 39 | 45 | +1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2024 |
POL
5 - 1
EST
82%
13%
5%
|
87 | 62 | 25 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2023 |
POL
2 - 0
LVA
87%
10%
3%
|
87 | 56 | 31 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2023 |
POL
1 - 1
CZE
49%
24%
27%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2023 |
POL
1 - 1
MDA
84%
12%
4%
|
87 | 51 | 36 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2023 |
FRO
0 - 2
POL
8%
18%
75%
|
87 | 48 | 39 | 0 |