African WC Qual. 1st and 2nd Round Final
Global 1-1
Gabon vs Mozambique analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51.5%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
23.5%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gabon
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2015 |
MOZ
1 - 0
GAB
26%
26%
48%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2015 |
GAB
0 - 1
CHA
77%
15%
7%
|
71 | 51 | 20 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
CHA
0 - 2
GAB
13%
18%
69%
|
71 | 51 | 20 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2015 |
GAB
1 - 2
COD
38%
26%
35%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
3 - 3
GAB
66%
21%
13%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Mozambique
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2015 |
MOZ
1 - 0
GAB
26%
26%
48%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2015 |
MOZ
1 - 1
ZAM
20%
25%
56%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2015 |
ZAM
3 - 0
MOZ
58%
25%
18%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
MUS
1 - 0
MOZ
17%
23%
59%
|
63 | 46 | 17 | -1 |
| 04 Jul. 2015 |
SYC
0 - 4
MOZ
15%
20%
65%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | +1 |