Spain vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
80.9%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
<0%
+5
4.3%
4-0
8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
9.5%
3-0
13.8%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.2%
2-0
17.9%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
24%
1-0
15.6%
2-1
7%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
23.7%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
1.4%
3-3
0.1%
0
14.3%
4.8%
Win probability
0.39
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
1.2%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
4%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr. 2003 |
ESP
3 - 0
ARM
95%
5%
1%
|
98 | 74 | 24 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
UKR
2 - 2
ESP
8%
18%
74%
|
98 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2003 |
ESP
3 - 1
GER
60%
23%
18%
|
98 | 95 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2002 |
ESP
1 - 0
BGR
77%
16%
7%
|
98 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2002 |
ESP
0 - 0
PAR
75%
17%
8%
|
98 | 91 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb. 2003 |
ECU
2 - 1
EST
69%
20%
11%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2003 |
ECU
1 - 0
EST
69%
20%
11%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2002 |
ECU
2 - 2
CRC
49%
26%
25%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2002 |
VEN
2 - 0
ECU
37%
27%
36%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2002 |
CRC
1 - 1
ECU
54%
25%
22%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |