Ecuador vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
19.9%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.1%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.9%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
57.6%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
10%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.6%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 2025 |
CHI
0 - 0
ECU
46%
25%
29%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2025 |
ECU
2 - 1
VEN
60%
22%
18%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2024 |
COL
0 - 1
ECU
61%
23%
16%
|
89 | 93 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
ECU
4 - 0
BOL
70%
19%
12%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2024 |
URU
0 - 0
ECU
61%
22%
17%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 2025 |
ARG
4 - 1
BRA
44%
24%
32%
|
96 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2025 |
BRA
2 - 1
COL
65%
20%
15%
|
96 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2024 |
BRA
1 - 1
URU
67%
19%
14%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
VEN
1 - 1
BRA
13%
20%
67%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2024 |
BRA
4 - 0
PER
80%
14%
6%
|
96 | 87 | 9 | 0 |