African WC Qual. 1st Round Final
Global 1-5
Comoros vs Mozambique analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.6%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
4%
2-1
3.3%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.4%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.4%
70%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
12.7%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.2%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.6%
0-4
5%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.9%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+48%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comoros
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
MOZ
3 - 0
COM
79%
16%
6%
|
11 | 64 | 53 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
COM
1 - 2
ZAM
7%
15%
79%
|
11 | 77 | 66 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
COM
1 - 1
LBY
10%
20%
70%
|
10 | 74 | 64 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 2011 |
LBY
3 - 0
COM
87%
10%
3%
|
10 | 74 | 64 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2010 |
COM
0 - 1
MOZ
12%
19%
70%
|
10 | 65 | 55 | 0 |
Matches
Mozambique
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
MOZ
3 - 0
COM
79%
16%
6%
|
64 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2011 |
LBY
1 - 0
MOZ
62%
22%
17%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2011 |
ZAM
3 - 0
MOZ
63%
22%
16%
|
65 | 78 | 13 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
MOZ
2 - 0
TAN
41%
27%
33%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
MOZ
0 - 2
ZAM
25%
26%
50%
|
65 | 78 | 13 | -1 |