Chad vs Mali analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
12.3%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
+2
2.5%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
3.2%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
9.2%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
21.5%
66.1%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
0-1
15.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.4%
0-2
14.1%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.7%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
11.6%
0-4
4%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
-4
5%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 2007 |
CHA
1 - 1
CGO
19%
24%
58%
|
45 | 71 | 26 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2007 |
ZAM
1 - 1
CHA
77%
16%
7%
|
45 | 78 | 33 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2007 |
RSA
4 - 0
CHA
80%
15%
5%
|
45 | 81 | 36 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2007 |
CHA
0 - 3
RSA
12%
20%
69%
|
46 | 81 | 35 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2007 |
CHA
1 - 0
LIE
77%
13%
10%
|
45 | 23 | 22 | +1 |
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2008 |
MLI
4 - 2
CGO
63%
22%
15%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2008 |
CIV
3 - 0
MLI
72%
18%
11%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2008 |
NGA
0 - 0
MLI
73%
17%
10%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2008 |
MLI
1 - 0
BEN
80%
14%
6%
|
80 | 60 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2008 |
EGY
1 - 0
MLI
75%
16%
9%
|
80 | 89 | 9 | 0 |