Chad vs Malawi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
15.3%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.6%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
4.2%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.5%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.5%
64.1%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
11.3%
1-3
6.6%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19.6%
0-3
7.6%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.6%
0-4
3.9%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.4%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
TUN
5 - 0
CHA
89%
9%
2%
|
47 | 86 | 39 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2011 |
CHA
0 - 1
BOT
20%
24%
57%
|
48 | 70 | 22 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2011 |
EQG
2 - 0
CHA
65%
21%
15%
|
48 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2010 |
TOG
0 - 0
CHA
74%
17%
9%
|
47 | 65 | 18 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2010 |
MWI
6 - 2
CHA
72%
18%
10%
|
48 | 64 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Malawi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
0 - 0
MWI
42%
26%
33%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2011 |
MWI
0 - 0
TUN
17%
25%
58%
|
66 | 86 | 20 | +1 |
| 06 Jul. 2011 |
MWI
0 - 1
NAM
59%
22%
19%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
BOT
0 - 0
MWI
42%
27%
30%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2011 |
SWZ
1 - 1
MWI
16%
23%
61%
|
68 | 49 | 19 | -1 |