SC NEC vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
12.1%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.8%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.5%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.9%
70%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.4%
0-2
11.6%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.9%
0-3
8.8%
1-4
4.2%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.8%
0-4
5%
1-5
1.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.2%
0-5
2.3%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.1%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 2005 |
EXC
3 - 5
ZWO
49%
24%
28%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2005 |
MVV
2 - 2
EXC
28%
25%
48%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2005 |
EXC
2 - 2
BVO
64%
20%
16%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2005 |
HFC
2 - 2
EXC
24%
25%
51%
|
66 | 55 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2005 |
EXC
2 - 1
FCE
60%
21%
19%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |