Jaraguá vs Nova Mutum analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14.1%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10.2%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
21.6%
64.3%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
0-1
13.8%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.8%
0-2
12.9%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.9%
0-3
8%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
11.2%
0-4
3.7%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.9%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Jaraguá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
POR
1 - 0
JAR
61%
20%
19%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
JAR
1 - 1
APA
12%
21%
67%
|
34 | 57 | 23 | +1 |
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
GOI
0 - 1
JAR
77%
16%
7%
|
33 | 51 | 18 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2021 |
JAR
0 - 2
URO
30%
24%
45%
|
35 | 43 | 8 | -2 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
BRA
3 - 0
JAR
78%
15%
7%
|
35 | 61 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Nova Mutum
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 2021 |
NME
1 - 0
BRA
24%
27%
49%
|
51 | 61 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2021 |
NME
1 - 1
GAM
46%
25%
29%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
URO
0 - 1
NME
29%
26%
45%
|
51 | 44 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2021 |
NME
2 - 0
GOI
37%
29%
35%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
POR
1 - 1
NME
24%
25%
51%
|
50 | 40 | 10 | 0 |