Jaraguá vs Hercílio Luz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.5%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.4%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
62.3%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.3%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.8%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.4%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.5%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-23%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Jaraguá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2016 |
LIT
3 - 0
JAR
73%
16%
11%
|
22 | 46 | 24 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2016 |
JAR
1 - 2
MAR
15%
20%
65%
|
23 | 46 | 23 | -1 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
JAR
2 - 3
CAC
16%
19%
65%
|
24 | 45 | 21 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2016 |
TUB
1 - 0
JAR
78%
15%
7%
|
24 | 48 | 24 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2016 |
BAR
0 - 0
JAR
65%
18%
17%
|
24 | 36 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2016 |
HER
0 - 0
MAR
33%
27%
41%
|
40 | 46 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2016 |
MAF
0 - 2
HER
30%
24%
47%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
HER
6 - 0
POR
49%
24%
27%
|
38 | 31 | 7 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 2016 |
CAC
0 - 0
HER
55%
23%
22%
|
38 | 45 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2016 |
JUV
3 - 1
HER
54%
24%
23%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | -1 |