Sarnen vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
20.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.3%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.2%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
57%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.5%
0-3
6%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.5%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2007 |
FCA
1 - 1
ZUR
17%
23%
61%
|
68 | 85 | 17 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2007 |
NEX
2 - 1
FCA
53%
25%
22%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2007 |
FCA
0 - 0
FCL
45%
26%
30%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2007 |
THU
2 - 5
FCA
56%
25%
19%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 05 Aug. 2007 |
FCA
2 - 2
GCZ
28%
27%
45%
|
68 | 79 | 11 | 0 |