Q. Europa League 1st Round Final
Global 3-1
Sarajevo vs Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74.9%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.6%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.2%
3-0
10.8%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.3%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
16.5%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
16.5%
8.6%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.5%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sarajevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2013 |
SAR
5 - 0
RAD
76%
17%
7%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
ZRI
2 - 2
SAR
33%
28%
40%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2013 |
SAR
1 - 0
SLA
68%
20%
12%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2013 |
ZEL
0 - 0
SAR
45%
27%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
SAR
4 - 1
ZVI
62%
22%
16%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2013 |
LIB
0 - 0
TPE
48%
26%
26%
|
63 | 61 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2013 |
LIB
1 - 1
FIO
29%
24%
47%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 2013 |
TPE
0 - 1
LIB
48%
25%
28%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | +1 |
| 13 Apr. 2013 |
LIB
1 - 0
VIR
68%
20%
12%
|
63 | 47 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2013 |
LIB
0 - 1
MUR
39%
25%
37%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | -1 |