SAP vs Willikies analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.5%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.5%
25%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0.1%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-48%
-81%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
4º
10º
6º
24
8º
15º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 49 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
34 | 34 |
3º
|
32% | |
|
4º
|
31 | 34 |
4º
|
32% | |
|
8º
|
25 | 31 |
5º
|
91% | |
|
|
5º
|
26 | 29 |
6º
|
44% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 28 |
7º
|
35% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 27 |
8º
|
61.5% | |
|
6º
|
26 | 26 |
9º
|
25% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
6.5% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 25 |
11º
|
42.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
24 | 24 |
12º
|
61% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 24 |
13º
|
93% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 10 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 6 |
15º
|
90% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 4 |
16º
|
90% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SAP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2023 |
ALL
4 - 1
SAP
49%
21%
30%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
LIB
4 - 8
SAP
24%
20%
56%
|
29 | 22 | 7 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
SAP
1 - 2
PAR
58%
20%
22%
|
29 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
SAP
2 - 4
VLI
52%
20%
27%
|
31 | 32 | 1 | -2 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
SAP
4 - 1
EGF
50%
22%
29%
|
29 | 31 | 2 | +2 |
Matches
Willikies
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
WIL
1 - 3
PAR
48%
21%
30%
|
30 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 2
ALL
45%
22%
34%
|
31 | 31 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 1
VLI
48%
22%
31%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 0
EGF
56%
20%
24%
|
32 | 29 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2023 |
WIL
3 - 1
OTT
46%
22%
32%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | +2 |