Paulista B Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Santacruzense vs XV de Novembro analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.5%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
22.9%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+84%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santacruzense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 2016 |
ECN
1 - 1
SAN
30%
25%
45%
|
41 | 34 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2016 |
MAU
1 - 2
SAN
29%
22%
50%
|
40 | 33 | 7 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
SAN
1 - 1
DIA
66%
19%
15%
|
40 | 26 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2016 |
BAN
2 - 4
SAN
22%
23%
55%
|
40 | 23 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2016 |
SAN
3 - 1
BAN
68%
20%
12%
|
40 | 23 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
XV de Novembro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 2016 |
ECN
1 - 1
SAN
30%
25%
45%
|
34 | 41 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2016 |
ECN
1 - 2
TAB
50%
25%
25%
|
35 | 31 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2016 |
JAB
0 - 3
ECN
38%
24%
39%
|
33 | 31 | 2 | +2 |
| 13 Aug. 2016 |
GRE
0 - 0
ECN
60%
22%
19%
|
33 | 41 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2016 |
ECN
1 - 1
GRE
30%
26%
44%
|
33 | 41 | 8 | 0 |