Samoa vs Papua New Guinea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.4%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.9%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.4%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.7%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
37.5%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 9
FIJ
18%
23%
60%
|
37 | 51 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
TAH
2 - 0
SAM
64%
21%
15%
|
38 | 48 | 10 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2016 |
SAM
0 - 8
PNG
18%
22%
61%
|
27 | 40 | 13 | +11 |
| 01 Jun. 2016 |
NCL
7 - 0
SAM
81%
13%
6%
|
28 | 51 | 23 | -1 |
| 29 May. 2016 |
TAH
4 - 0
SAM
75%
17%
8%
|
29 | 47 | 18 | -1 |
Matches
Papua New Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun. 2024 |
PNG
1 - 1
TAH
19%
22%
59%
|
35 | 48 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
PNG
1 - 5
FIJ
19%
23%
59%
|
37 | 51 | 14 | -2 |
| 25 Mar. 2024 |
CTA
4 - 0
PNG
43%
24%
34%
|
38 | 43 | 5 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2024 |
LKA
0 - 0
PNG
25%
20%
55%
|
39 | 29 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
PNG
0 - 1
VAN
27%
22%
51%
|
40 | 47 | 7 | -1 |