Samoa vs Papua New Guinea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.7%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.3%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.8%
60.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
10.7%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.6%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.4%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.6%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.7%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
-14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2016 |
NCL
7 - 0
SAM
81%
13%
6%
|
28 | 51 | 23 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2016 |
TAH
4 - 0
SAM
75%
17%
8%
|
29 | 47 | 18 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 2015 |
TON
0 - 3
SAM
21%
22%
57%
|
28 | 21 | 7 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2015 |
COK
1 - 0
SAM
46%
24%
31%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | -1 |
| 31 Aug. 2015 |
SAM
3 - 2
ASA
86%
11%
3%
|
29 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Papua New Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2016 |
PNG
2 - 2
TAH
24%
24%
53%
|
38 | 47 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2016 |
PNG
1 - 1
NCL
17%
22%
61%
|
37 | 51 | 14 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 2016 |
SOL
1 - 2
PNG
58%
22%
20%
|
36 | 44 | 8 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
SOL
2 - 0
PNG
57%
22%
21%
|
37 | 44 | 7 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
PHL
5 - 0
PNG
75%
16%
9%
|
37 | 57 | 20 | 0 |