Samoa vs New Zealand analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
7.7%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.4%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
2.1%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
<0%
+1
6.1%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
17.2%
75.1%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
0-1
14.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.9%
0-2
15.9%
1-3
6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.8%
0-3
11.4%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
15%
0-4
6.1%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
7.6%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0%
-5
3.2%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
+28%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
SAM
0 - 3
TAH
17%
21%
61%
|
33 | 48 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
VAN
4 - 1
SAM
63%
21%
16%
|
34 | 45 | 11 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2024 |
TON
1 - 2
SAM
6%
15%
79%
|
34 | 11 | 23 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2024 |
ASA
0 - 2
SAM
5%
14%
81%
|
34 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 2
PNG
38%
24%
38%
|
35 | 36 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
New Zealand
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
NZL
8 - 1
VAN
77%
16%
7%
|
70 | 45 | 25 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2024 |
NZL
4 - 0
MAS
55%
24%
21%
|
70 | 60 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
NZL
3 - 0
TAH
73%
18%
9%
|
70 | 48 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2024 |
USA
1 - 1
NZL
80%
14%
7%
|
69 | 90 | 21 | +1 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
MEX
3 - 0
NZL
74%
17%
9%
|
70 | 89 | 19 | -1 |