UCL Qualifying Third round Final
Global 1-3
Salzburg vs Valencia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
26.6%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.6%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
17.8%
29.8%
Draw
0-0
12.8%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
29.8%
43.6%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
15.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.6%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
12.7%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Salzburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2006 |
RBS
4 - 1
GRA
55%
24%
21%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2006 |
RBS
2 - 0
ZUR
37%
27%
36%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2006 |
AUS
1 - 1
RBS
45%
26%
30%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2006 |
ZUR
2 - 1
RBS
61%
22%
17%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | +1 |
| 22 Jul. 2006 |
ALT
0 - 2
RBS
34%
26%
40%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Valencia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 2006 |
OSA
2 - 1
VCF
35%
29%
36%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2006 |
VCF
1 - 1
ATM
62%
22%
16%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2006 |
MLL
2 - 1
VCF
31%
29%
40%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 2006 |
VCF
3 - 0
ALA
72%
18%
10%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2006 |
ATH
0 - 3
VCF
35%
29%
36%
|
91 | 86 | 5 | +1 |