Q. Europa League 1st Round Final
Global 3-3
Sūduva vs FC Daugava analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.9%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.9%
18.1%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sūduva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jul. 2012 |
SUD
2 - 3
FKE
47%
26%
27%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2012 |
VIL
0 - 2
SUD
19%
24%
57%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2012 |
SUD
3 - 1
BAN
71%
19%
10%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
SUD
0 - 1
KRU
68%
20%
12%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2012 |
ATL
0 - 4
SUD
7%
18%
75%
|
77 | 45 | 32 | 0 |
Matches
FC Daugava
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun. 2012 |
GUL
0 - 2
FCD
26%
25%
50%
|
69 | 58 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2012 |
FCD
2 - 0
FCJ
58%
24%
18%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2012 |
LIE
2 - 0
FCD
62%
22%
17%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
FCD
2 - 0
FKJ
64%
22%
15%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2012 |
FCS
3 - 0
FCD
62%
22%
17%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | -1 |