UCL Qualifying Third round Final
Global 5-1
Real Madrid vs Wisla Kraków analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
80.7%
Win probability
2.96
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.4%
4-0
7.4%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.7%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.6%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
12.1%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
12.1%
7.1%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.1%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
WIS
0 - 2
RMA
23%
23%
53%
|
92 | 80 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2004 |
RMA
1 - 4
RSO
76%
15%
10%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2004 |
MUR
2 - 1
RMA
12%
20%
69%
|
93 | 79 | 14 | -1 |
| 08 May. 2004 |
RMA
2 - 3
MLL
79%
13%
8%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2004 |
DEP
2 - 0
RMA
37%
24%
39%
|
93 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Wisla Kraków
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
GKS
0 - 3
WIS
30%
25%
45%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
WIS
0 - 2
RMA
23%
23%
53%
|
80 | 92 | 12 | -1 |
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
WIS
4 - 0
POL
64%
20%
16%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2004 |
WIS
3 - 0
WIT
71%
17%
12%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2004 |
WIS
5 - 1
GOR
77%
15%
8%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |