Copa del Rey . Quarter-finals
Global 3-4
Real Madrid vs Celta analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81%
Win probability
2.93
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3%
5-0
4.5%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.4%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.8%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.7%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.1%
12.1%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
12.1%
6.9%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2017 |
SEV
2 - 1
RMA
23%
21%
56%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2017 |
SEV
3 - 3
RMA
25%
22%
54%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2017 |
RMA
5 - 0
GRA
89%
8%
3%
|
93 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2017 |
RMA
3 - 0
SEV
81%
12%
7%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2016 |
RMA
4 - 2
KAA
94%
5%
1%
|
93 | 46 | 47 | 0 |
Matches
Celta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2017 |
CEL
1 - 0
ALA
72%
18%
10%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2017 |
CEL
2 - 1
VCF
48%
24%
28%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2017 |
CEL
3 - 1
MAL
54%
24%
22%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2017 |
VCF
1 - 4
CEL
59%
22%
19%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2016 |
CEL
1 - 0
UCA
83%
13%
4%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |