Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Real Madrid vs Bayern München analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.7%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
12.5%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.2%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.9%
36.4%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
4.1%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
10.8%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2024 |
RMA
3 - 0
CAD
85%
11%
3%
|
100 | 82 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2024 |
BYM
2 - 2
RMA
41%
24%
36%
|
100 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2024 |
RSO
0 - 1
RMA
13%
20%
68%
|
100 | 92 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
RMA
3 - 2
FCB
59%
21%
19%
|
100 | 96 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2024 |
MAC
1 - 1
RMA
55%
21%
24%
|
100 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Bayern München
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2024 |
STU
3 - 1
BYM
10%
14%
77%
|
99 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2024 |
BYM
2 - 2
RMA
41%
24%
36%
|
99 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
BYM
2 - 1
EIN
77%
15%
8%
|
99 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2024 |
FCU
1 - 5
BYM
5%
11%
84%
|
99 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2024 |
BYM
1 - 0
ARS
62%
20%
18%
|
99 | 97 | 2 | 0 |