UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 7-2
PSV vs Sturm Graz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
68.3%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.5%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.7%
14%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
PSV
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
FEY
0 - 1
PSV
39%
23%
38%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
PSV
1 - 0
NTT
70%
18%
12%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2023 |
PSV
3 - 1
EIN
84%
11%
5%
|
89 | 66 | 23 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
AUG
1 - 2
PSV
15%
20%
65%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
FCB
1 - 2
PSV
15%
19%
66%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Sturm Graz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
STR
2 - 0
LAS
43%
25%
32%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
AUS
0 - 3
STR
42%
24%
34%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2023 |
STR
3 - 0
STR
34%
24%
42%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
STR
0 - 2
MPT
65%
19%
16%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
KLA
2 - 7
STR
4%
11%
86%
|
82 | 25 | 57 | 0 |