Paulista A2 Etapas Finales. Quarter-finals
Global 4-1
Ponte Preta vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.9%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.9%
4-0
7%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
+4
8.8%
3-0
12.2%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.2%
2-0
16%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.1%
1-0
13.9%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
+1
23.8%
15.5%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
15.5%
6.6%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
5.3%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-20%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ponte Preta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
COM
1 - 1
PPE
14%
22%
65%
|
68 | 49 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
PPE
2 - 0
NOR
70%
19%
11%
|
68 | 55 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2023 |
BRA
2 - 0
PPE
14%
22%
63%
|
69 | 53 | 16 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
COM
1 - 1
PPE
13%
21%
66%
|
69 | 50 | 19 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2023 |
FPI
0 - 4
PPE
13%
19%
68%
|
69 | 47 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
COM
1 - 1
PPE
14%
22%
65%
|
49 | 68 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
RIO
2 - 0
COM
38%
27%
35%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
COM
1 - 1
PPE
13%
21%
66%
|
50 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2023 |
XVD
1 - 0
COM
67%
21%
13%
|
50 | 59 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
COM
2 - 1
VEL
34%
26%
41%
|
49 | 52 | 3 | +1 |