Policia SP vs Monte Carlo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
35.5%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.4%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
40.1%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.4%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.9%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Policia SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2016 |
PSP
1 - 6
SMA
37%
23%
40%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2016 |
BEN
1 - 0
PSP
65%
18%
17%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2016 |
CPK
3 - 1
PSP
57%
20%
23%
|
30 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2016 |
WAK
4 - 0
PSP
92%
6%
2%
|
20 | 48 | 28 | +10 |
| 05 Mar. 2016 |
CPO
3 - 1
PSP
48%
21%
32%
|
31 | 27 | 4 | -11 |
Matches
Monte Carlo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2016 |
MCA
0 - 4
BEN
56%
19%
25%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2016 |
CPK
0 - 5
MCA
50%
21%
29%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2016 |
WAK
2 - 1
MCA
55%
21%
24%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2016 |
CPO
0 - 16
MCA
12%
15%
74%
|
46 | 22 | 24 | -14 |
| 05 Mar. 2016 |
LAI
0 - 5
MCA
50%
21%
29%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | +14 |