PEP vs SAPA II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
34.9%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.3%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.6%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22.1%
43%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
4.4%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
12.9%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
6.5%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points