Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
75.4%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.7%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
16.2%
8.4%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.4%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
3º
8º
4º
15
8º
12º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
89.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10.5% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penybont
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
HAV
3 - 2
PEN
25%
27%
48%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
CWM
0 - 3
PEN
8%
15%
77%
|
69 | 39 | 30 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 4
TNS
43%
25%
32%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | -1 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
CON
4 - 2
PEN
44%
28%
28%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 0
BAR
73%
18%
9%
|
70 | 56 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
CAE
3 - 0
ABE
65%
20%
15%
|
54 | 61 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
ABE
2 - 1
PON
82%
12%
6%
|
53 | 36 | 17 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2023 |
ABE
1 - 1
CON
19%
25%
56%
|
53 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
HAV
3 - 0
ABE
55%
23%
22%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 1
ABE
71%
18%
11%
|
53 | 65 | 12 | +1 |