FA Cup
Global 4-5
Penrith AFC vs Dunston UTS analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
18.9%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
+1
11.8%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
61.3%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
4.1%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.6%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
2.2%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
18.4%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
11.3%
0-4
3.4%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
5.6%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penrith AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2016 |
DUN
3 - 3
PEN
72%
16%
12%
|
20 | 33 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2016 |
PEN
1 - 0
SUN
34%
23%
44%
|
19 | 22 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 2015 |
PEN
1 - 2
JAR
47%
23%
30%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2013 |
BRA
2 - 1
PEN
82%
13%
6%
|
20 | 50 | 30 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2013 |
PEN
2 - 2
SCA
24%
22%
55%
|
19 | 31 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Dunston UTS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2016 |
DUN
3 - 3
PEN
72%
16%
12%
|
33 | 20 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2016 |
DUN
4 - 0
BAR
78%
14%
9%
|
33 | 16 | 17 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2016 |
BAR
2 - 2
DUN
13%
18%
70%
|
33 | 14 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
KEN
5 - 2
DUN
46%
21%
32%
|
35 | 31 | 4 | -2 |
| 29 Aug. 2015 |
HOL
0 - 2
DUN
16%
20%
65%
|
35 | 17 | 18 | 0 |