Vaprus Pärnu vs Harju JK Laagri analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.2%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.3%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
38.3%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.4%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.3%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-26%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
4º
9º
7º
18
3º
10º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 75 |
1º
|
59.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 71 |
2º
|
39.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 66 |
3º
|
34.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 66 |
4º
|
29.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 59 |
5º
|
64% | |
|
|
8º
|
18 | 40 |
6º
|
41.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
23 | 39 |
7º
|
36% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 35 |
8º
|
28.5% | |
|
9º
|
17 | 32 |
9º
|
40.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 28 |
10º
|
61.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
89% | 90% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
8% | 7% |
|
Relegation
|
3% | 3% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2025 |
KUR
2 - 1
PAR
44%
26%
30%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
PAR
0 - 0
TRA
37%
26%
37%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2025 |
PAR
2 - 2
KAL
35%
25%
40%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
PAR
1 - 2
PAI
38%
26%
37%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
TAL
0 - 3
PAR
43%
25%
32%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Harju JK Laagri
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2025 |
HJP
26 - 0
FCT
88%
9%
4%
|
70 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
LEV
3 - 0
HJP
49%
24%
27%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2025 |
TAL
3 - 1
HJP
23%
21%
56%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | -1 |
| 29 Jun. 2025 |
HJP
1 - 1
KUR
62%
21%
17%
|
72 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
KAL
1 - 0
HJP
52%
22%
26%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |