UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 4-4
PAOK vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
16.2%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.9%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
62.3%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
0-1
11.8%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.8%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7.3%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
10.9%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.9%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
PAOK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2010 |
AJA
1 - 1
PAO
79%
14%
7%
|
77 | 89 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2010 |
FCN
1 - 1
PAO
51%
26%
23%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2010 |
OFC
3 - 1
PAO
31%
27%
42%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2010 |
PAO
1 - 0
ERF
67%
21%
12%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2010 |
ARI
3 - 2
PAO
40%
30%
30%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 2010 |
AJA
0 - 1
TWE
61%
20%
19%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2010 |
AJA
1 - 1
PAO
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2010 |
AJA
3 - 1
CHL
30%
26%
44%
|
89 | 95 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2010 |
FCP
1 - 0
AJA
39%
24%
37%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2010 |
FEY
1 - 4
AJA
27%
23%
50%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |