Guatemala First Division Apertura Final
Global 4-6
Nueva Concepción vs Heredia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
37%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.8%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
37.6%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.2%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
-29%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nueva Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
NUE
3 - 0
DEP
47%
24%
29%
|
49 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2015 |
DEP
2 - 0
NUE
32%
24%
44%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Nov. 2015 |
NUE
4 - 1
SAY
50%
24%
26%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Nov. 2015 |
SAY
1 - 0
NUE
30%
24%
46%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Nov. 2015 |
NUE
3 - 0
HAL
27%
25%
47%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Heredia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
HER
1 - 1
AUR
71%
17%
12%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2015 |
AUR
0 - 1
HER
28%
27%
45%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | +1 |
| 29 Nov. 2015 |
HER
2 - 0
MIX
65%
19%
16%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2015 |
MIX
1 - 0
HER
34%
25%
41%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | -1 |
| 22 Nov. 2015 |
IZT
3 - 2
HER
29%
26%
44%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | 0 |