Novara vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.2%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.7%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
14%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10%
0-2
2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2003 |
PIS
0 - 2
NOV
43%
26%
31%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2003 |
ACL
2 - 1
NOV
39%
25%
36%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
NOV
2 - 0
PAV
66%
20%
14%
|
63 | 49 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
SPE
3 - 0
NOV
38%
27%
36%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2003 |
NOV
0 - 0
PAD
60%
22%
18%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2003 |
ASL
1 - 1
RIM
43%
28%
29%
|
58 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2003 |
ARZ
2 - 1
ASL
49%
26%
25%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
PIS
3 - 3
ASL
51%
27%
21%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
ASL
1 - 1
CES
37%
30%
33%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | +1 |
| 12 Oct. 2003 |
PIS
1 - 1
ASL
44%
29%
27%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | -1 |