Nova Mutum vs Jaraguá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
67.5%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.6%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
12.7%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nova Mutum
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 2021 |
APA
3 - 1
NME
54%
25%
21%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2021 |
LTD
2 - 1
NME
28%
24%
49%
|
51 | 45 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 May. 2021 |
NME
0 - 0
LTD
54%
23%
23%
|
52 | 45 | 7 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2021 |
NME
1 - 0
LUV
45%
24%
31%
|
51 | 48 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Apr. 2021 |
LUV
1 - 0
NME
30%
24%
46%
|
52 | 47 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Jaraguá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2021 |
JAR
1 - 3
GAM
18%
23%
60%
|
40 | 54 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2021 |
JAR
2 - 0
VIL
11%
19%
70%
|
38 | 63 | 25 | +2 |
| 19 Apr. 2021 |
IPO
2 - 1
JAR
48%
25%
27%
|
38 | 48 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2021 |
APA
1 - 0
JAR
67%
19%
14%
|
39 | 54 | 15 | -1 |
| 07 Apr. 2021 |
JAR
1 - 2
GOI
25%
23%
53%
|
40 | 50 | 10 | -1 |