Newtown vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.8%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
12%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.7%
13.5%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-20%
-22%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
1º
11º
11º
14
8º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 51 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
50 | 50 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
40 | 40 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 34 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 32 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 32 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 30 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 26 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 21 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 20 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
19 | 19 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
|
12º
|
14 | 14 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 2
CAE
48%
22%
31%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
HED
2 - 0
NEW
6%
13%
82%
|
67 | 30 | 37 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 1
STO
85%
11%
4%
|
67 | 42 | 25 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
BUC
1 - 1
NEW
9%
16%
75%
|
67 | 42 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 0
GUI
80%
13%
7%
|
67 | 48 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
COL
0 - 2
ABE
42%
23%
35%
|
56 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
CIN
1 - 2
ABE
6%
14%
81%
|
56 | 20 | 36 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2024 |
ABE
2 - 1
BRI
35%
22%
44%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
ABE
0 - 1
LLA
19%
19%
63%
|
56 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2024 |
ABE
0 - 1
RAD
62%
19%
19%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | 0 |