Newcastle vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6.5%
Win probability
0.48
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.8%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
1.1%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
1.7%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
5.2%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
15.8%
77.7%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
0-1
14.7%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.2%
0-2
16.5%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
23.3%
0-3
12.3%
1-4
3.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
16%
0-4
6.9%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
8.5%
0-5
3.1%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0%
-5
3.7%
0-6
1.2%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
SHE
0 - 8
NEW
20%
24%
56%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2023 |
ACM
0 - 0
NEW
52%
23%
25%
|
92 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 0
BRE
49%
25%
26%
|
91 | 89 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
BHA
3 - 1
NEW
43%
26%
31%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | -1 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 2
LIV
17%
21%
62%
|
91 | 97 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
MAC
2 - 0
NTT
91%
7%
2%
|
100 | 84 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 1
CRV
93%
6%
1%
|
100 | 81 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
WHU
1 - 3
MAC
13%
20%
67%
|
100 | 91 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
MAC
5 - 1
FUL
89%
9%
3%
|
100 | 87 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
SHE
1 - 2
MAC
6%
16%
78%
|
100 | 83 | 17 | 0 |