Nelson Suburbs vs Ferrymead Bays analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.8%
Win probability
2.81
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.6%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.2%
14.7%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.7%
11.4%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+30%
+12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
1º
6º
5º
21
4º
8º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 42 |
1º
|
68.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 40 |
2º
|
56.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 40 |
3º
|
56.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 28 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 27 |
5º
|
32% | |
|
|
5º
|
21 | 25 |
6º
|
34.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 21 |
7º
|
39.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 19 |
8º
|
49.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
69.5% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
69.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
1 - 1
CHR
12%
16%
73%
|
21 | 39 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FER
2 - 3
NSF
35%
22%
43%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
2 - 2
NOM
53%
20%
27%
|
20 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
6 - 2
NSF
90%
7%
3%
|
21 | 38 | 17 | -1 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
NSF
5 - 1
UOC
87%
9%
5%
|
21 | 11 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
FER
1 - 3
NOM
45%
23%
32%
|
18 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 0
FER
93%
5%
2%
|
18 | 38 | 20 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FER
2 - 3
NSF
35%
22%
43%
|
19 | 20 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
SUF
2 - 4
FER
8%
14%
78%
|
19 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
FER
0 - 3
COA
16%
18%
66%
|
20 | 30 | 10 | -1 |