Nelson Suburbs vs Ferrymead Bays analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.4%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.5%
25.1%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0.1%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+25%
+14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
1º
4º
4º
25
5º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
47 | 47 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
29 | 32 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
25 | 25 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 24 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 19 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 14 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
11 | 11 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 1 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2024 |
NSF
5 - 0
RAA
74%
15%
12%
|
20 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
NOM
2 - 0
NSF
44%
20%
36%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
NSF
1 - 6
CAS
9%
13%
78%
|
22 | 40 | 18 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 2024 |
UOC
0 - 1
NSF
6%
11%
84%
|
22 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
SUF
0 - 5
NSF
15%
16%
70%
|
22 | 13 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2024 |
SUF
0 - 3
FER
21%
19%
60%
|
20 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
FER
3 - 2
SUF
75%
15%
11%
|
20 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
COA
1 - 0
FER
62%
19%
20%
|
20 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2024 |
FER
3 - 0
FCT
85%
10%
5%
|
20 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
DUN
4 - 4
FER
48%
21%
31%
|
20 | 20 | 0 | 0 |