Nelson Suburbs vs Ferrymead Bays analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.1%
Win probability
2.6
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.9%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
17.4%
17.5%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
5º
8º
6º
26
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 49 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
39 | 42 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
31 | 31 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
26 | 29 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
5º
|
26 | 29 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
|
6º
|
22 | 25 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
20 | 23 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
16 | 16 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
10 | 10 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 6 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2023 |
NSF
4 - 5
GIA
74%
14%
12%
|
25 | 18 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
DUN
3 - 3
NSF
41%
21%
38%
|
25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
CAS
5 - 4
NSF
89%
7%
4%
|
25 | 45 | 20 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2023 |
NSF
0 - 1
CAS
10%
12%
77%
|
26 | 45 | 19 | -1 |
| 11 Jun. 2023 |
NSF
7 - 1
SUF
84%
10%
5%
|
26 | 16 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2023 |
FER
4 - 1
DUN
28%
22%
51%
|
20 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2023 |
SUF
3 - 5
FER
34%
21%
45%
|
19 | 16 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
FER
0 - 2
NOM
55%
20%
25%
|
20 | 18 | 2 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 2023 |
FER
0 - 1
CHR
10%
14%
76%
|
21 | 41 | 20 | -1 |
| 11 Jun. 2023 |
COA
1 - 3
FER
63%
19%
19%
|
20 | 23 | 3 | +1 |