Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.8%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
27.5%
Draw
0-0
9.5%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.5%
27.8%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
2º
6º
4º
26
1º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
44 | 44 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
35 | 35 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
34 | 34 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
29 | 29 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 28 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 26 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
26 | 26 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 25 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 21 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 17 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
SPT
0 - 2
NAC
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2024 |
GUA
0 - 0
NAC
42%
28%
31%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
OLI
41%
28%
31%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
CRI
0 - 5
NAC
4%
11%
85%
|
79 | 19 | 60 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
TAC
47%
27%
27%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
CRZ
1 - 1
LIB
68%
20%
12%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 0
TAC
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 2
CRZ
32%
28%
40%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 1
CCP
46%
26%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2024 |
AME
0 - 1
LIB
41%
27%
32%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |