Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
37.2%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.6%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
36.4%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
1º
8º
5º
51
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
51 | 51 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 41 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
38 | 38 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 33 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 31 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 30 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 27 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 17 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
17 | 17 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
15 | 15 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2023 |
NAC
3 - 1
HUA
60%
23%
17%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
JLM
0 - 1
NAC
38%
27%
35%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2023 |
HUA
2 - 1
NAC
27%
25%
48%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
GUA
1 - 3
NAC
34%
28%
38%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
OLI
1 - 1
NAC
51%
24%
24%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
LIB
1 - 1
LQE
58%
24%
19%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
RES
0 - 2
LIB
24%
25%
51%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
LIB
1 - 0
GUA
52%
25%
23%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
TAC
1 - 0
LIB
24%
25%
51%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
LIB
4 - 2
GUA
54%
25%
22%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |