Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
45.6%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.7%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
28.1%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2007 |
SAN
1 - 0
NAC
40%
27%
34%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2007 |
NAC
1 - 1
CCP
39%
26%
35%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2007 |
LQE
2 - 1
NAC
48%
25%
27%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2007 |
NAC
0 - 1
OLI
54%
24%
22%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2007 |
NAC
1 - 0
AME
66%
21%
13%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2007 |
LIB
0 - 1
CCP
46%
25%
29%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2007 |
LIB
0 - 2
BOC
36%
26%
38%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | -1 |
| 20 May. 2007 |
LIB
0 - 2
LQE
53%
24%
24%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2007 |
BOC
1 - 1
LIB
63%
22%
16%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2007 |
OLI
0 - 1
LIB
40%
27%
33%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |