Nacional vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22.1%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.7%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
54.1%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
0-1
11.3%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
9.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.6%
0-3
5.5%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.4%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 2015 |
NAC
1 - 2
DEP
38%
27%
35%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2015 |
CCP
1 - 0
NAC
61%
21%
18%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Nov. 2015 |
NAC
0 - 0
AME
42%
28%
30%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 2015 |
SAN
2 - 1
NAC
38%
27%
35%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 2015 |
GUA
4 - 0
NAC
63%
20%
16%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 2015 |
GUA
0 - 1
RÑU
65%
19%
15%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2015 |
DEP
1 - 1
GUA
24%
24%
52%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2015 |
GUA
4 - 2
CCP
54%
23%
22%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2015 |
AME
2 - 4
GUA
32%
24%
44%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2015 |
GUA
4 - 0
NAC
63%
20%
16%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |