Motueka vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
7.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.4%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
1.8%
1-0
1.5%
2-1
2.3%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
5.2%
11.4%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11.4%
81%
Win probability
3.22
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
8%
1-3
8.2%
2-4
3.1%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
20%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
6.6%
2-5
2%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
17.5%
0-4
6.9%
1-5
4.2%
2-6
1.1%
3-7
0.2%
4-8
0%
-4
12.4%
0-5
4.4%
1-6
2.3%
2-7
0.5%
3-8
0.1%
-5
7.3%
0-6
2.4%
1-7
1%
2-8
0.2%
3-9
0%
-6
3.6%
0-7
1.1%
1-8
0.4%
2-9
0.1%
-7
1.6%
0-8
0.4%
1-9
0.2%
2-10
0%
-8
0.6%
0-9
0.2%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0.1%
-10
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Motueka
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2023 |
MAF
2 - 1
FCN
5%
12%
83%
|
9 | 61 | 52 | 0 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2023 |
FCT
0 - 6
NSF
8%
13%
79%
|
25 | 13 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2023 |
NSF
1 - 1
NOM
81%
12%
7%
|
25 | 17 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2023 |
CNT
0 - 10
NSF
8%
12%
80%
|
25 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2023 |
CHR
4 - 0
NSF
82%
11%
7%
|
26 | 41 | 15 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
NSF
5 - 0
COA
56%
20%
25%
|
25 | 23 | 2 | +1 |