Motueka vs Nelson analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
5.3%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.6%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1%
1-0
1.9%
2-1
1.6%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
4.1%
11.5%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
11.5%
83.2%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.4%
0-2
12.8%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
22%
0-3
12.2%
1-4
5.2%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
18.4%
0-4
8.7%
1-5
3%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
12.1%
0-5
4.9%
1-6
1.4%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
6.5%
0-6
2.3%
1-7
0.6%
2-8
0.1%
-6
3%
0-7
1%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
1.2%
0-8
0.3%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.4%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 2023 |
FCN
5 - 2
GBA
84%
12%
5%
|
61 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
FCN
0 - 6
NSF
84%
11%
5%
|
61 | 29 | 32 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2022 |
FCN
3 - 2
TAH
86%
10%
3%
|
61 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2022 |
FCN
1 - 0
GBA
87%
10%
3%
|
61 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2021 |
FCN
1 - 2
AFC
82%
12%
6%
|
61 | 17 | 44 | 0 |