Montecarlo vs Calamocha analysis


15	ELO	20
-2.5%	Tilt	1.5%
11854º	General ELO ranking	6628º
1972º	Country ELO ranking	286º
ELO win probability

30.2%

Montecarlo

24.6%

Draw

45.2%

Calamocha

Possible results

Probability of each exact result

Probability of handicap

30.2%
Win probability

                        
                    
1.26
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.5%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.4%

24.6%

Draw

0-0

5.8%

1-1

11.6%

2-2

5.8%

3-3

1.3%

4-4

0.2%

5-5

<0%

0

24.6%

45.2%
Win probability

                        
                    
1.59
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.6%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.3%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%